Image:NHC Atlantic Forecast Error Trends.gif

From Global Warming Art

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Description

Map of the all tropical storm tracks and the regions of greatest intensity

This figure shows the improvement in the position forecasting of the National Hurricane Center's tropical cyclone prediction model for the Atlantic Ocean from 1970 to 2005. As can be seen, the error in predicting the future position of tropical cyclones has decreased by a factor of 2 to 3 on all time scales during this interval due to improved models, faster computers, and more complete measurements.

Since the goal of predicting hurricane trajectories has remained essentially unchanged over time, this data provides a consistent basis by which to judge the improvements in weather models during the last several decades. Unlike weather models, there are no comparable long-term data sets by which to measure the improving accuracy of climate models.

Copyright

This image was created by NOAA and is in the public domain.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

This image is a work of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, taken or made during the course of an employee's official duties. As works of the U.S. federal government, all NOAA images are in the public domain.