Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png

From Global Warming Art

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Description

Map of the distribution of average temperature changes over the 1995-2004 period relative to 1940-1980 means.

This image shows the instrumental record of global average temperatures as compiled by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office. Data set HadCRUT3 was used which follows the methodology outlined by Brohan et al. (2006). Following the common practice of the IPCC, the zero on this figure is the mean temperature from 1961-1990.

The uncertainty in the analysis techniques leading to these measurements is discussed in Foland et al. (2001) and Brohan et al. (2006). They estimate that global averages since ~1950 are within ~0.05 °C of their reported value with 95% confidence. In the recent period, these uncertainties are driven primarily by considering the potential impact of regions where no temperature record is available. For averages prior to ~1890, the uncertainty reaches ~0.15 °C driven primarily by limited sampling and the effects of changes in sea surface measurement techniques. Uncertainties between 1980 and 1890 are intermediate between these values.

Incorporating these uncertainties, Foland et al. (2001) estimated the global temperature change from 1901 to 2000 as 0.57 ± 0.17 °C, which contributed to the 0.6 ± 0.2 °C estimate reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, [1]). Both estimates are 95% confidence intervals.

Temperature Record Series

This figure is part of series of plots showing changes in Earth's temperature over time.

Time Period: 25 yrs | 150 yrs | 1 kyr | 2 kyr | 12 kyr | 450 kyr | 5 Myr | 65 Myr | 500 Myr

Licensing

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data.

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References

[abstract] [full text] [DOI] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850". J. Geophysical Research 111: D12106.
[full text] IPCC (2001a). Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521807670.
[abstract] [full text] [DOI] Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls and D.M.H. Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861". Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621-2624.