File:Instrumental Temperature Record.png
From Global Warming Art
This image shows the instrumental record of global average temperatures as compiled by the NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The data set used follows the methodology outlined by Hansen et al. (2006). Following the common practice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the zero on this figure is the mean temperature from 1961-1990.
The uncertainty in the analysis of global temperature is discussed in Foland et al. (2001) and Brohan et al. (2006). They estimate that global averages since ~1950 can be expected to be within ~0.05 °C of reported values with 95% confidence. In the recent period, these uncertainties are driven primarily by considering the potential impact of regions where no temperature record is available. For averages prior to ~1890, the uncertainty reaches ~0.15 °C driven primarily by limited sampling and the effects of changes in sea surface measurement techniques. Uncertainties between 1980 and 1890 are intermediate between these values.
Incorporating such uncertainties, Foland et al. (2001) estimated the global temperature change from 1901 to 2000 as 0.57 ± 0.17 °C, which contributed to the 0.6 ± 0.2 °C estimate reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, ). Both estimates are 95% confidence intervals.
|Temperature Record Series|
|This figure is part of series of plots showing changes in Earth's temperature over time.|
|Time Period: 25 yrs | 150 yrs | 1 kyr | 2 kyr | 12 kyr | 450 kyr | 5 Myr | 65 Myr | 500 Myr|
|See also: Future predicted changes | Map of recent warming | Temperature change category|
This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data.
- [abstract] [ [ Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade (2006). "Global temperature change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103: 14288-14293.
- [ISBN 0521807670. IPCC (2001a). Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- [abstract] [ [ Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls and D.M.H. Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861". Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621-2624.
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