File:Global Warming Predictions.png

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Description

A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21^st century according to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model and scenario has an average warming of 3.0°C

Different carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the 21st century. This is the other key factor leading to uncertainty in climate change predictions.

This figure shows climate model predictions for global warming under the SRES A2 emissions scenario relative to global average temperatures in 2000. The A2 scenario is characterized by a politically and socially diverse world that exhibits sustained economic growth but does not address the inequities between rich and poor nations, and takes no special actions to combat global warming or environmental change issues. This world in 2100 is characterized by large population (15 billion), high total energy use, and moderate levels of fossil fuel dependency (mostly coal). At the time of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, the A2 scenario was the most well-studied of the SRES scenarios.

The IPCC predicts global temperature change of 1.4-5.8°C due to global warming from 1990-2100 (IPCC 2001a, [1]). As evidenced above (a range of 2.5°C in 2100), much of this uncertainty results from disagreement among climate models, though additional uncertainty comes from different emissions scenarios.

As shown below, climate models routinely predict that land will warm more rapidly than ocean due to it's lower specific heat.

Models

The model data used above was taken from the IPCC-DDC, and the models are as follows:

• CCSR/NIES: Center for Climate System Research [2] & National Institute for Environmental Studies, [3], CCSR/NIES AGCM + CCSR OGCM Models 1890-2100
• CCCma: Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis [4], CGCm2 Model 1900-2100
• CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [5], CSIRO-Mk2 model 1961-2100
• Hadley Centre: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research [6], HADCM3 model 1950-2099
• GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [7], R30 Model 1961-2100
• MPI-M: Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie [8], ECHAM4/OPYC coupled model 1990-2100
• NCAR PCM: National Center for Atmospheric Research [9], PCM model 1980-2099
• NCAR CSM: National Center for Atmospheric Research [10], CSM Model 2000-2099

Copyright

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from published data.

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Reference

• [full text] IPCC (2001a). Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521807670. 

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	Date/Time	Thumbnail	Dimensions	User	Comment
current	23:16, 12 February 2006		528×377 (25 KB)	Robert A. Rohde (Talk | contribs)